Josh Allen keeps adding to the MVP case. The Buffalo Bills keep winning. And yet the most revealing part of Buffalo’s 5-1 start may be what the quarterback’s latest near-perfect outing did not fix.
The Bills are in first place in the AFC East and heading into their bye week after back-to-back wins out west against the Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders. Allen was near-perfect in the high-scoring win over Las Vegas, and he did not need to carry the offense by himself. James Cook’s efficiency and explosiveness on the ground helped keep Buffalo on schedule, and Allen’s job was made much easier.
That is the encouraging part.
The less comfortable part is that Buffalo still looks like a team asking its quarterback to cover for too much.
Through six games, the Bills’ defense has allowed an average of 386.8 yards and 28.5 points per game. It has also let the team down in critical games. The run defense has shown improvement, but the pass defense has been vulnerable to big plays, and the Bills have not consistently cleaned up the kinds of breakdowns that become expensive in January.
The numbers are not subtle. Buffalo has allowed a 45% conversion rate on third downs, which keeps its own offense from getting the ball back and forces Allen to keep answering. The Bills have also been flagged 51 times for 429 yards, and three of those games featured more than 10 accepted penalties. That kind of sloppiness is hard to ignore when the margin gets tighter.
The latest discipline issue only sharpened the concern. C.J. Gardner-Johnson was suspended for a game after spitting at Brock Bowers during the Week 6 win over the Raiders, and he is set to miss Week 8 because of that suspension. The NFL said Franklin Jr. “spit at an opponent, violating Rule 12, Section 3, Article 1, which applies to ‘any act which is contrary to the generally understood principles of sportsmanship.’” However the Bills sort through the rest of the season, that is the kind of self-inflicted problem they cannot afford to keep layering on top of defensive inconsistency.
The timing of the bye week could hardly be better.
Buffalo is finally getting a chance to rest after the trip west, and the extra time comes with a real list of issues to sort through. The Bills have been dealing with injuries all season, including DJ Moore and Ed Oliver missing the last two games. Moore has been dealing with a shoulder injury since Week 2, while Oliver suffered a knee injury in Week 4. The team has been carrying a steady injury report each week, which makes the reset even more valuable.
It also comes before a difficult Week 8 home game against the Baltimore Ravens. Buffalo will have the advantage of not playing this weekend, while Baltimore is set to come off a tough divisional game against the Cincinnati Bengals. That gives the Bills a little extra time to prepare, but it does not change the larger question hanging over the roster.
Can Buffalo keep leaning this hard on Allen and expect the rest of the structure to hold?
Allen’s recent play has only sharpened that question. He posted his lowest average depth of target of the season at 6.5 yards, taking what the defense gave him and avoiding unnecessary risk. He threw his receivers into defensive holding and defensive pass interference calls a few times, and even the one clear mistake in recent games did not end in a negative for the Bills. He is playing with more control of the game than any quarterback in the NFL at the moment, while still keeping the heroic plays nobody else can make.
That combination is why the Bills are 5-1. It is also why the concern is so obvious.
Allen seems to add a new line to his MVP resume every week, but Buffalo’s season will not be decided by his individual brilliance alone. The Bills have already shown they can win when Allen is at his best. The harder part is proving they can clean up the defense, the penalties and the discipline issues before those flaws start deciding games for them.
The bye week gives them a pause. The Ravens game will show whether it was enough.